Another Peer Review Were Making Public: Privately Sponsored Refugee Automation

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“A recent report from Central 1 Credit Union suggests a rebound in Metro Vancouver’s housing market is coming. However, at the moment there are property owners losing hundreds-of-thousands of dollars on their investments.” There follow examples of homeowners losing money, care of @mortimer_1: 1. Burnaby. Bought $1.9M May 2016, Sold 2019 $1.495M, Loss $405K + expenses (over 21%) 2. Burnaby. Bought $3.11M 2016, Sold $2.1M 2019, Loss $1.01M + expenses (over 32.5%) 3. Vancouver Westside. Bought $2.7M Feb 2016, Sold $2M 2019, Loss $700K + expenses (over 25.9%) 4. North Vancouver. Bought $2.36M Mar 2017, Sold $2.05 2019, Loss $310K + expenses (over 13.1%) – from David Carrigg, Vancouver Sun, 5 Dec 2019 (image: Anselm Kiefer) Seeing terms like “homeowners hosed” and “falling market” in top-of-the-page Vancouver Sun headlines is certainly worthy of note – particularly for those of us who have been following this long enough to have endured years and years of local media entranced with rising prices. (Anybody remember the well-known local TV anchor exclaiming “I love Real Estate!” ?) However, note that the Sun still talks about homes as “investments” – perhaps that will have to change before we’re done. Here and elsewhere, some discussion of ‘soft landings’ that is clearly based more on hope than observation. As noted previously, our target prices should be determined by utility value of properties, not on imagined future sale prices. Current prices are still far above those levels. It ain’t over. – vreaa

This building was given a permit in 1903 as 171 Water Street, when Oscar Brown hired J M McLuckie to design and build a single storey warehouse.  His fruit and vegetable business moved in, and adopted 175 Water as the address. In 1913 the same company hired F H Rayner to add two more storeys. By that point Oscar Brown himself had much less involvement with the fruit and vegetable business that occupied the building. He arrived in Vancouver in 1899, aged 23, and was initially in partnership as Brown and McGregor. He had arrived from California, having been involved in the orange growing business in Riverside before moving here. He became sole proprietor after a couple of years, and retired to California having sold the business in 1913. Initially he had premises on the northeast corner of Abbott and Water Street, suspended on piles over the beach. He was an investor in other property, including a building on Powell Street (where we looked at his biography). In Vancouver he had health challenges, and was advised to return to a warmer climate, so moved to Santa Barbara where he died in a motor car accident in 1928, when he was 53. He apparently never married. US Census records say he had been born in Arkansas, (and when he died he had a sister living there, in the Ozarks), but his obitiary said he was from St Louis, Montana. In 1914 Richard Marpole was running the business (and hoping somebody picked up a pearl heart brooch lost on Hastings Street). A year later a french bulldog was lost here, answering to the name of ‘Chunky’. He was obviously returned, as Mr. Marpole was looking for him again in June 1917. Richards’s father, also called Richard, died in 1920. He left an estate worth over half a million dollars, including this building which was valued at $43,000. Two thirds of the estate was left to his son (with the other third in trust to his grandchildren). Richard stayed as president of Oscar Brown, but also had a coal business under his own name. In 1936 Oscar Brown Co operated from 165 Water (which we think was the store in this building, operating under a new street address), and the BC Coast Vegetable Marketing Board were in the upper floors, at 175. Harry Paterson worked for the board, which got into a dispute with Chung Chuck and Mah Lai of Ladner, who grew potatoes. He stopped the Chinese growers on the Fraser avenue bridge (baton in hand) and seized their potatoes, heading to a Vancouver warehouse for export (but not through the Marketing Board, who the growers found ‘unsatisfactory’). The courts granted an injunction preventing the Board from interfering in the export. In our 1973 image Gastown was being reinvented as a retail area, rather than a warehouse district, and the main floor had the Dresser Drawer Boutique, selling Mexican silver, hand-tooled leather and imported dresses and kaftans. It was replaced by the Calico Cat, a gift store. The office space upstairs was renovated in 1984, and today the store is Michelle’s Import Plus, selling souvenirs, t-shirts and gifts for the visitor market, while upstairs there are law offices and a finance company. Image source: City of Vancouver Archives CVA 1095-08060 1415

Bubbles — like the current Vancouver housing bubble — are nothing new. Contrary to the views of some, markets are not efficient and are frequently irrational. Few understood this better than John Kenneth Galbraith. Over twenty years ago in, A Short History of Financial Euphoria, he gave an excellent summary of how they occur. And as the following section presciently concludes, “There will be occasion to see the operation of this rule frequently repeated.” Chapter 1 – The Speculative Episode That the free-enterprise economy is given to recurrent episodes of speculation will be agreed. These–great events and small, involving bank notes, securities, real estate, art and other assets or objects–are, over the years and centuries, part of history. What have not been sufficiently analyzed are the features common to these episodes, the things that signal their certain return and have thus the considerable practical value of aiding understanding and prediction. Regulation and more orthodox economic knowledge are not what protect the individual and the financial institution when euphoria returns, leading on as it does to wonder at the increase in values and wealth, to the rush to participate that drives up prices, and to the eventual crash and its sullen and painful aftermath. There is protection only in a clear perception of the characteristics common to these flights into what must conservatively be described as mass insanity. Only then is the investor warned and saved. There are, however, few matters on which such a warning is less welcomed. In the short run, it will be said to be an attack, motivated by either deficient understanding or uncontrolled envy, on the wonderful process of enrichment. More durably, it will be thought to demonstrate a lack of faith in the inherent wisdom of the market itself. The more obvious features of the speculative episode are manifestly clear to anyone open to understanding. Some artifact or some development, seemingly new and desirable–tulips in Holland, gold in Louisiana, real estate in Florida, the superb economic designs of Ronald Reagan–captures the financial mind or perhaps, more accurately, what so passes. The price of the object of speculation goes up. Securities, land, objets d’art, and other property, when bought today, are worth more tomorrow. This increase and the prospect attract new buyers; the new buyers assure a further increase. Yet more are attracted; yet more buy; the increase continues. The speculation building on itself provides its own momentum. This process, once it is recognized, is clearly evident, and especially so after the fact. So also, if more subjectively, are the basic attitudes of the participants. These take two forms. There are those who are persuaded that some new price-enhancing circumstance is in control, and they expect the market to stay up and go up, perhaps indefinitely. It is adjusting to a new situation, a new world of greatly, even infinitely increasing returns and resulting values. Then there are those, superficially more astute and generally fewer in number, who perceive or believe themselves to perceive the speculative mood of the moment. They are in to ride the upward wave; their particular genius, they are convinced, will allow them to get out before the speculation runs its course. They will get the maximum reward from the increase as it continues; they will be out before the eventual fall. For built into this situation is the eventual and inevitable fall. Built in also is the circumstance that it cannot come gently or gradually. When it comes, it bears the grim face of disaster. That is because both of the groups of participants in the speculative situation are programmed for sudden efforts at escape. Something, it matters little what–although it will always be much debated–triggers the ultimate reversal. Those who had been riding the upward wave decide now is the time to get out. Those who thought the increase would be forever find their illusion destroyed abruptly, and they, also, respond to the newly revealed reality by selling or trying to sell. Thus the collapse. And thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang. There will be occasion to see the operation of this rule frequently repeated.

Jordi Honey-Roses, Silvia Casorran Martos, and Xavier Matilla, warmly greeted the British Columbian planners as we approached the intersection of Carrer de Roc Boronet and Carrer de Sancho Avila—ground zero of the first Superilla experiment. As mentioned in Part 9, the pioneering urban planning project focused on making the city more livable, sustainable, and community-centered— addressing modern environmental and social challenges. While earlier mobility plans laid the groundwork, the concept was included in the   2013-2018 U rban Mobility Plan (PMU) . However, it was under the Colau administration that the first pilot project was launched in El Poblenou. The city sought to reduce car dependency and prioritize sustainable transport like walking, cycling, and public transit, while expanding limited public and green spaces in the densely populated city. The core concept reorganizes parts of the city into “superblocks,” clusters of nine city blocks that restrict car traffic to accommodate pedestrians, cyclists, and green spaces. Interior streets are closed to through traffic but remain accessible to residents, emergency services, and deliveries. The aim: to reduce noise, pollution, and accidents while creating more public spaces for walking, playing, and socializing. The first experimental Superilla was in El Poblenou—where we now stood— a neighborhood undergoing transformation as the 22@ Innovation District with a mix of residential and industrial spaces. The intersection where we sat offered the ideal setting for our hosts to explain the key elements of the pilot: streets closed to through traffic and converted into green areas, pedestrian paths, and public seating. This transformation followed a tactical urbanism approach—low-cost, small-scale interventions that tested new ideas and encouraged community involvement. This allowed the city to experiment with innovative solutions before making long-term investments, allowing flexibility and adaptability. Key elements of this transformation included: Restricted traffic access for residents and essential vehicles only. Expanded sidewalks and pedestrian zones. New green spaces for gathering and socializing Dedicated cycling paths, for safer, non-motorized transport safer. In keeping with an evidence-based approach, the City and Honey-Roses gathered and analyzed data immediately after its implementation to assess effectiveness. It wasn’t perfect —conflicts between pedestrians and vehicles arose, However, perfection wasn’t the goal—learning was. Despite initial imperfections, the Poblenou experiment quickly showed clear benefits: reduced air and noise pollution, fewer accidents, and increased public space usage by the local community. These were in line with Barcelona’s goals. It needed to evolve. Remarkably, the next iteration didn’t take place in the same area. Though the transformations in Poblenou were “unrefined,” the community’s attachment to them was so strong that they largely remain to this day. Some areas, like Carrer dels Almogàvers, continue to be improved as a new pedestrian axis, and new public spaces, such as Plaça Isabel Vilà, have emerged. The next Superilla experiment was set in a higher-profile location:  around the iconic Sant Antoni market designed by Antoni Rovira i Trias in 1882, at the other end of the Eixample. Here, the Superilla concept transformed into something even more ambitious—moving to its second three stages. We hopped on our bikes… *** Other pieces in the Barcelona Chronicles : Part 1 – Introduction Part 2 – Cerdà and Colau: Two Key Figures Part 3 – The Barcelona Housing Policy 2015-2023 Overview Part 4 – Defining Affordable & Social Housing Part 5 – Supplying Affordable Housing Part 6 – The 30% Measure and Others Part 7 – Vancouver v. Barcelona – Foundations Part 8 – Barcelona v. Vancouver – Strategies Part 9 – The Eixample and the Superilla Part 11 – The Superilla…Evolved Part 12 – Vancouver v. Barcelona – Urban Design Part 13 – Reflections on Two Cities ** Erick Villagomez  is the Editor-in-Chief at Spacing Vancouver and teaches at UBC’s School of Community and Regional Planning. The post The Barcelona Chronicles: The Superilla Pilot appeared first on Spacing Vancouver.

Urban planner Andy Yan, director of the City Program at SFU, thinks the pandemic has exposed Vancouver’s economic fragility. Besides real estate, Yan explains, the economy is driven by service industries such as tourism, which has been clobbered by COVID-19. Not only do tourists help fuel short-term rentals like Airbnb, but many long-term renters work in tourism and hospitality. “If you were either counting on Airbnb or on a renter living in your secondary suite helping pay for your mortgage, and now they can’t, what do you do?” Yan asks. Add in the fact that international travel is now very difficult, and things could get much uglier. “You have the local economy not doing well, and now you’re cut off from the global economy,” Yan says. “So it feels like it’s 1978,” when Metro Vancouver resembled what he calls Detroit by the Pacific. His summary of that era: “It wasn’t good.” When it comes to retail and office real estate, the future looks uncertain, too, Yan reckons. It’s easy to blame Amazon, but storefront retail was already struggling before the crisis, he says. “You know how COVID takes out people with pre-existing health conditions? Well, we have pre-existing economic conditions.” As for the office property market, Yan says that before people started staying home, 20 to 30 percent of Metro Vancouver’s labour force already worked there. “If you accelerate that and it goes into now 40 or 45, maybe even 50, how much are they going to stay at home?” Bryan Yu, deputy chief economist with Central 1 Credit Union, also sees uncertainty ahead. “Commercial is probably a little bit problematic, especially the retail side, and even for some of the commercial product as work from home becomes much more normalized,” he says. “Will companies go back to requiring that large footprint they have now, or are they moving to a more nimble, work-from-home type of environment?” Either way, creating a new local economy won’t be easy. Given what the pandemic has revealed about the risks of relying on global supply chains, one possible scenario is that manufacturing returns to the region. But as Yan points out, the City of Vancouver converted much of its industrial land to residential in the 1980s and ’90s. “Now where does that industrial perhaps go?” he asks. “It either goes to, say, Surrey or Abbotsford, or it goes to Calgary or Winnipeg.” For the province as a whole, the fact that tourism, retail and other service industries dominate spells trouble in a deglobalized world, Yan warns. In food service alone, more than 120,000 B.C. workers have lost their jobs, at least temporarily, Restaurants Canada estimates. “There are these green shoots in technology or highly specialized manufacturing, but they can’t generate a mass of employment,” Yan says. – excerpt from ‘For B.C. real estate, will COVID-19 bring down the house?’ Nick Rockel, BCBusiness, Apr 23, 2020 Apt metaphors include Biblical ‘feet of clay’ and Buffett’s “when the tide goes out you discover who has been swimming naked”. – vreaa