BCREA 2025 Second Quarter Housing Forecast: Pent-up Demand Builds as Tariff Uncertainty Drives Buyers to the Sideline

Canadians account for the largest group of international tourists in the United States, and 40% of all foreign visitors to Florida alone. In 2024, they spent an estimated $20.5 billion USD stateside, which is why, according to the U.S. Travel Association, even a 10% drop in Canadian visitors could result in a loss of $2.1 billion in spending and 14,000 jobs. But the annual spending and visitation are rapidly changing, and it’s no longer just about boycotting American products or avoiding U.S. politics. The deepening rift between Canada and the United States—driven by policy shifts, travel restrictions, and economic uncertainty—has many snowbirds rethinking their winter plans. Increasingly, they’re packing up, selling off their U.S. real estate, and looking to invest further south for their seasonal migrations. What Is a Snowbird? Commonly associated with Canadians, “snowbirds” are retirees over the age of 65 who spend many months (approximately up to 6 months) out of the year in warmer climates, typically during the harsh winter months. They may rent or, more often, own a property, such as a vacation home, to stay in. Why Are Snowbirds Leaving the U.S.? For decades, Canadian snowbirds have flocked to the United States to escape the winter months and have become the largest group of foreign investors in U.S. real estate. Approximately 1 million Canadians are reported to own vacation properties in the country, with the most in Florida (27%), California (11%), and Arizona (11%). Other popular states include Texas, Hawaii, Louisiana, South Carolina, and New Mexico, reflecting the widespread appeal of warm-weather destinations. The Canadian Snowbird Visa Act was initially proposed in June 2019, allowing snowbirds over the age of 50 to extend their visitation from 182 days (nearly 6 months) to 240 days (8 months) per year. However, this bipartisan bill has yet to be passed by the American Congress. Meanwhile, Canadians and foreign visitors to the United States had to wait for the proposed Trump administration’s travel policy, which was officially enacted on April 11, 2025. While Canadian nonimmigrants may be exempted from registering their fingerprints at the border, they must still report to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) if their intended visit is over 30 days, under this new policy. The antagonism around the visa policy, combined with increasing scrutiny and bureaucratic hurdles, has made long-term planning uncertain for many retirees. Beyond visa hurdles, the Canada-U.S. tax treaty that helped avoid double taxation for many snowbirds may not be enough incentive for them to invest, as the ongoing tariff war raises questions about the long-term viability of U.S. real estate. The political climate has even worsened with controversial rhetoric, including suggestions of America annexing Canada, which has offended many Canadians and further chilled cross-border sentiment. Unsurprisingly, more and more snowbirds are opting to sell their American properties to fly back home or invest elsewhere. This trend is now visibly disrupting real estate markets in snowbird-heavy regions like Florida and Arizona, which are experiencing a sharp increase in home listings from Canadian owners. Where Will Snowbirds Venture Next?