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June 2025 Bank of Canada Interest Rate Prediction

ByRose Ho

With the Bank of Canada set to announce its latest overnight interest rate on Wednesday, June 4, we anticipated a rate hold for the second time this year.

Canada’s economic situation can be seen as currently too complicated for the Bank of Canada to increase or decrease its rate, thus potentially adding more confusion to the mix. This is due to ongoing trade uncertainty, fuelled by U.S. tariff decisions (or indecisions), and general economic turmoil.

Meanwhile, unexpectedly high GDP performance (2.2% annualized) in the first quarter of the year, which may be attributed to a rush of pre-tariff spending on the other side of the border, is acting as a counter to falling inflation (1.7% in April) and growing recession fears. Therefore, the policy rate will likely remain the same as the Bank waits for further indications as to which way the market is turning.

2025 Interest Rate Announcements to Date

Date Rate Change
January 29 3.00% -0.25%
March 12 2.75% -0.25%
April 16 2.75% No change
June 4 (prediction) 2.75% No change

This predicted pause aligns with the Bank’s slow and conservative pace regarding interest rate decisions, as it aims to protect the Canadian economy from dramatic shifts. The overnight interest rate can be used to spur or dampen economic activity to balance inflation against GDP growth, but with so many factors moving in so many different directions, it makes sense for the Bank to stall for time.

Rate change or not, all of this directly impacts the real estate market, from potential home buyers to current homeowners. So, what can Canadian consumers anticipate?

What Does This Mean For Real Estate?

With borrowing rates exactly the same as they have been since April, we can expect this to prolong the current state of the real estate market for a short period. Encouragingly, mortgage rates are still lower than they were just a year ago, which is great news for first-time home buyers! Realistically, hesitant buyers may continue to wait on the sidelines, hoping for a rate drop later in the year, which will result in a flood of buyers itching to join the housing ladder at the same time.

However, prospective homeowners should seize the window of opportunity now while property prices and buyer competition are low and housing inventory and selection are high. Sparse sales activity since 2024 means that future home construction and completions are shrinking, so there will be a severe lack of supply in a few short years.

The GTA anticipates less than 40,000 new homes added to the market by the end of 2025, which is set to drop to less than 20,000 new homes in 2026 and 2027, and slip further to less than 10,000 in 2028. At that time, prices will skyrocket again as today’s fearful buyers find themselves competing for the little that is available.

Make your move today! First-time home buyers have the advantage right now: increased affordability, government incentives, lots of selection, and little competition. Don’t miss your chance to own your dream home. Call Stan at 604-202-1412

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No GST for First-Time Home Buyers on New Homes

BySharon Jung

The Government of Canada has just announced a new GST relief program to make homeownership more accessible for first-time buyers. Effective May 27, 2025, this First-Time Home Buyer’s GST Rebate offers significant savings on newly built homes valued up to $1.5 million. The current real estate market is already seeing lower average sale prices, and this rebate has lowered the entry barrier even further for young Canadians. Eligible buyers will have the Goods and Services Tax (GST) eliminated for new homes valued up to $1 million and a linear reduction for new homes between $1 million and $1.5 million. For example, a new home valued at $1.25 million will receive a 50% GST rebate for up to $25,000. The full rebate will save buyers up to $50,000 upon purchase, and it is projected to result in a total of $3.9 billion in tax savings for Canadians over the next five years. FTHB GST Rebate Eligibility This rebate will have similar eligibility criteria and conditions as the existing GST/HST New Housing Rebate, where it is required to either: Buy a new home from a developer Build or contract the build of a new home on owned or leased land Buy shares of a co-operative housing corporation The amendments to the new rebate will ensure accessibility and affordability for first-time buyers while emphasizing the advantage of paying no GST for new homes up to $1 million. In order to qualify for this rebate, the Agreement of Purchase and Sale for the home must be signed with the developer between May 27, 2025, and December 31, 2030, meaning that the home’s construction must begin before 2031 and be substantially completed before 2036. In order to qualify for this GST rebate, you must be a first-time buyer who: Is at least 18 years of age Is a Canadian citizen or a permanent resident of Canada Has not lived in a home (in or out of Canada) that you have owned or your spouse or common-law partner has owned in the last 4 years Other limitations to the rebate state that an individual buyer must not claim the FTHB GST Rebate more than once in their lifetime, and they cannot claim the rebate if their spouse or common-law partner has already claimed it. The rebate also will not apply to homes purchased through an assignment sale if the original purchase agreement was signed before May 27, 2025. In addition, if the purchase agreement is originally signed before this date and is cancelled or altered to appear new, the rebate may be denied entirely. The Rebate’s Impact on the Housing Market Aimed at reducing upfront costs for first-time buyers in 2025, this policy is expected to increase homeownership rates across Canada—particularly among younger Canadians and new families who have been priced out of the market in recent years. By making newly built homes more affordable, the rebate also encourages demand for new construction, which could help stimulate development as well. By incentivizing both buyers and builders to increase housing supply, this measure could play a significant role in easing the pressure of Canada’s predicted housing shortage over the coming decade. Looking to take advantage of this rebate? Connect with GTA-Homes today to learn more about first-time home buyer incentives! Our award-winning agents are here to guide you through every step of the process and to help you find your perfect home. Or if you still have homebuying fear or uncertainty, join us for our First-Time Home Buyer Seminar, where you can learn more about the current market, receive the recipe for buying success, and ask all your purchasing questions in a one-on-one meeting with one of our professional agents. The post No GST for First-Time Home Buyers on New Homes appeared first on Realinsights.

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Refinancing Versus Selling Your Investment Property

ByRose Ho

In today’s news, it’s common to hear stories about Canadian real estate investors who bought at the market peak a few years ago and now feel buyer’s remorse as property values are sinking in 2025. Even investors who entered the market earlier than 2022 are struggling to shoulder higher carrying costs against a less-active rental market. Mortgage, credit card, and automobile delinquencies are also up, especially in Ontario. On top of this, the average non-mortgage debt for Canadian consumers climbed up 2.74% in the first quarter of the year to reach $21,859. With many homeowners under financial stress, investors may be considering their options, namely to hold, to refinance, and (as a last option) to sell. Costs of Refinancing vs. Selling To help illustrate the costs of refinancing versus selling, let’s take one example of an investor who currently owns a two-bedroom condo in Downtown Toronto, which he is renting out. This property is currently worth $800,000, which is a bit devalued from the market peak 3 years ago. He has owned it for a while, so his mortgage loan is only about $400,000. His carrying costs are high because he renewed his mortgage term when interest rates were around 5%, but he is nearing the end of his term and interest rates are much lower. His daughter is about to go to college, so he wants to help her cover her tuition and living expenses. Therefore, he is considering refinancing or selling his condo investment property to reduce his monthly financial burden and have extra funds to help his daughter. Let’s look at the cost breakdown of both options. Refinancing Selling Appraised Home Value $800,000 Current Mortgage Loan $400,000 Cost to Refinance or Sell (agent/broker fees, mortgage penalty, legal costs) $2,000 $50,000 Capital Gains Tax N/A $92,000 New Mortgage Loan $600,000 N/A Money Extracted Minus Costs $198,000 $257,000 In the short term, selling can provide more value for this investor, as the difference between refinancing and selling is an estimated $59,000 in cash. However, this is just a quick estimate and a shallow glance at the immediate effects of selecting either option. What happens when we look deeper and project into the future? Why Selling Could Cost You More Than You Think Once you sell, you give up the three pillars of real estate wealth: leverage, capital appreciation, and cash flow. The moment you sell, it all stops—no more equity growth, no more rental income, no more long-term gain. It ends right then and there. But when you refinance instead, you get the best of both worlds: ✅ Immediate access to cash to help you now ✅ Continued growth on your $100,000 investment Over the last 25 years, home prices have appreciated at an average rate of 7.5%. Even at a conservative 4% annual growth, if your property is worth $800,000, that’s $32,000 a year in equity gain—without lifting a finger. And that’s on top of your tenant paying down your mortgage and generating monthly cash flow. If you keep that property for another 15 to 25 years, the wealth potential multiplies. We’re not talking about a one-time gain of $257K. We’re talking about 10x that amount — while still holding the asset, benefiting from appreciation, and using someone else’s money (your tenant’s) to build your net worth. Refinancing keeps your wealth working. Selling shuts it down. What Are Your Long-Term Goals? Both refinancing and selling can help this investor achieve his immediate objectives: reducing his carrying costs and sending his daughter to college. However, in the long run, they will deliver different results. Therefore, it is crucial for any investor to keep their long-term goals in mind. Short-Term: Reduce Current Debt and Financial Strain If you are currently under the weight of heavy debts (including multiple mortgages, credit card debt, or other loans) and your carrying costs are growing out of hand, you may consider selling your property to tackle both of these problems at once. The net proceeds of selling your real estate investment can help you pay off other debts while immediately removing that property’s carrying costs from your monthly ledger. However, if your situation only needs a slight adjustment to be sustainable again and borrowing rates have dropped, refinancing your high-interest fixed-rate mortgage may be just what you need to carry on. By refinancing and getting a lower interest rate while extracting some optional extra cash, you may be able to lower your monthly costs and improve your cash flow to cover other expenses. You should still weigh the refinancing option against the qualifications you may need to apply for a new mortgage and the penalty of breaking your current mortgage agreement. Not everyone’s situation may allow them to refinance, as lenders will look at your debt ratios, which may have worsened since you last applied for a mortgage. Additionally, if you are near the beginning of your mortgage term or have a closed agreement, breaking your current mortgage may be extremely costly. Long-Term: Use The Equity to Spend or Invest More Refinancing offers an attractive avenue for you to extract cash equity without incurring the many expenses of selling your property. The cost to refinance for some can be quite minimal, as some mortgage brokers offer cashback incentives to cover legal fees. The equity you withdraw is not subject to capital gains tax either, which would otherwise take a huge bite out of your

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Condominium basics

ByStan S.

Condominium basics Understanding condominium ownership, lifestyle and successful condominium living. Condominium living can be an appealing housing option. It’s often affordable and someone else handles much of the maintenance and repairs, such as shovelling snow and replacing the roof. Many condominiums have enhanced security features over those found in single-family houses and offer a wide…

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Does Canadas Declining Birth Rate Mean More Housing Availability?

ByRose Ho

With the Canadian real estate market currently facing historically low sales activity, dropping property values, and growing inventory, many people have deluded themselves (and even some others) into believing that this is how things will be from now on and for many years to come. They want to think that we will somehow witness a total reversal of decades of home price increases until we start seeing houses worth 20% of what they cost today. Some pseudo-economists have even gone so far as to point at Canada’s declining birth rate, which is slated to stop keeping pace with our increasing death rate in 2030, as proof that our housing supply surplus will be even greater than it is currently. But this is a foolish, inaccurate, and short-sighted way of thinking. So today, we will be busting the myth that Canada’s declining birth rate will mean more housing availability and affordability. The Truth About Supply and Population First of all, Canada’s property values have been increasing steadily for decades, despite short-term dips and spikes. The real estate market is cyclical, and we have seen market highs tempered by market lows and vice versa. In the long run, however, homes are absolutely essential and prove their resilient value over long periods of time. The temporary jump in Canadian housing prices in 2022 may have resulted in a harsh correction in 2025, but we can still expect the market to readjust itself later and resume its steady decades-long climb based on how prices have increased for nearly 50 years. Secondly, Canada’s population and economic growth have always relied heavily on immigration, which is still healthy and robust—to the point that we have needed to lower our previously too-ambitious immigration targets to achieve sustainable growth. Our old 2023-2025 immigration plan brought in around half a million people annually, which caused a lot of stress to the housing market and infrastructure, as cities and provinces were unprepared for such a high rate of population growth. In fact, Canada hit a population milestone of 40 million people in 2023! A serious adjustment was required, which is why the new 2025-2027 immigration plan reduced the population inflow by more than 20%. But this does not mean our population will shrink! Any nation in the world requires its population to grow by at least 1% each year in order to maintain its GDP growth. Therefore, Canada plans to welcome just under 1% of its population as permanent residents and around 5% as temporary residents for the next three years, instead of the previous immigration rate of 1.25% permanent residents and 7.5% temporary residents. The country will adjust its immigration targets regularly, which is why Canada’s birth and death rates are not significant factors for the housing market. Population and Immigration Projections According to Statistics Canada Total Population in 2025 41.5 million Total Population in 2027 42.26 million Permanent Resident Admissions Target (1% of population) ~422,600 Temporary Resident Admissions Target (5% of population) ~2,100,000 As we can see, constant and necessary immigration is why housing will remain valuable and demand will continue to outpace supply in the long term, even as we currently see sliding housing prices and ballooning inventory in the short term. Where the Market is Heading? With today’s situation, we can foresee that 2025’s lack of housing presales will mean virtually zero construction will occur in 2026 and 2027, meaning no new inventory will be added in 2028. This is poised to spark a new cycle in the market, as low supply and high demand will drive prices back up again. In addition, the overall future of housing in Canada is deliberately heading towards rentals rather than ownership. Both the government and developers are focusing their efforts toward building purpose-built rental housing, which means condo development is expected to fall by the wayside. This means future homeowners will have fewer options when looking for starter homes as they compete for a smaller selection of resale homes or more expensive low-rise pre-construction homes. Therefore, first-time home buyers have a small window of opportunity to break into the housing market while conditions are currently favourable. In a few short years, there will be fewer housing options and higher prices, making it harder for Canadians to switch from renting to buying. Seize your opportunity now with the expert guidance of GTA-Homes! Our agents are ready to walk you through the homebuying process and help you realize your dreams of homeownership. The post Does Canada’s Declining Birth Rate Mean More Housing Availability? appeared first on Realinsights.

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What to Do if You Overpaid for a Property

ByRose Ho

With a housing market that has changed drastically in the last few years, many Canadians who purchased homes in 2021 and 2022 found themselves having to close on devalued properties in 2024 and 2025. So, many have asked, “What can you do if you’ve overpaid for a property?”  Before we answer this question, let us first understand how and why buyers overpay for properties. Common Traps Of Overpaying It can be easy to overpay for real estate if you are unfamiliar with the market, have an inexperienced agent, or make critical mistakes in the buying process. Here are some of the most common reasons why someone may end up purchasing a property above market value: Lack of market context: If you purchase without researching the comparable prices of homes in the area or knowing which way the market is heading, you may not recognize when a home is unreasonably priced. Emotional decision-making: Some buyers choose to go with their “gut feeling,” or allow the fear of missing out in a hot market or the excitement of a bidding war push them to make a quick buying decision instead of a well-considered purchase. Confusion about the proper process: Mistakes like skipping the home inspection or disregarding your budget parameters or closing costs can lead to higher costs in the future. The most effective way to avoid these errors is to get professional guidance right at the start. It is of utmost importance to find an experienced and trustworthy realtor, like our award-winning, full-time agents at GTA-Homes, who can help you navigate the current market and make a decision that will serve your long-term goals. They also provide their clients with a Competitive Market Analysis (CMA) to help them compare the pricing of similar homes in the neighbourhood they are looking for. Why Are People Overpaying Now? A trend that has become more common in the last year or two is a direct result of a post-pandemic market spike, buyers riding a wave of emotions, and, most unfortunately, risk-taking speculation. For example, when a woefully unprepared buyer closes on an overpriced property, they may have had to drum up more funds to complete the transaction. This is because the presale price may have been something like $1.5 million when they signed the purchase and sale agreement in 2021, as prices were climbing precipitously. Then, the economy changed. Inflation shot up, and interest rates were increased to combat the effects. Subsequently, the property value dropped to $1.3 million in 2024 when it finished construction, and it became time to close. To make matters worse, some buyers did not factor the closing costs into their budget. Don’t forget that closing costs for pre-construction can add 8% to 10% to the purchase price. Mortgage lenders would no longer cover the $200,000 difference in the price, therefore the buyer would have to cough up the extra $200,000 by doing something drastic and unplanned, like selling another property (in a depressed market, no less), renting out the new unit instead of moving in, or borrowing funds from other sources (at a higher interest rate, too). Therefore, immediately after closing on a too-costly property, a buyer will likely have some new financial considerations, which may lead them to tighten their budget and follow the movements of the housing market carefully. What should these over-payers do? What Not To Do: Panic and Sell Immediately Buyers may be tempted to sell their new homes immediately and at a steep loss, out of fear that prices will continue to drop and they will only lose more money over time. However, they should keep in mind that these adverse events are temporary. The market will recover later, and if you sell now, you will not be able to recoup your losses in the future. What To Do: Hold As Long As You Can You may need to scrutinize your current finances and create a new budget. You can increase your cash flow by renting out your home, exploring secondary jobs, and cutting unnecessary costs or high-interest borrowing. You may also look for opportunities to refinance under better terms, consult financial advisors who can help you find creative solutions, and prepare other options. The good news is that Canadian real estate is resilient and offers long-term rewards for those who buy and hold for many years. In 5 years from now, 10 years from now, and 20 years from now, your real estate investment will have increased in value. This projection is more certain, based on the current low pre-construction sales, which will directly translate into less construction activity and fewer new homes being delivered. This means a critical strain on supply in the face of upcoming demand and ongoing immigration. Lower supply means higher rent prices and property values. Projected New Home Completions (Based on Sales Activity) Year New Homes 2025 38,768 2026 18,812 2027 18,221 2028 9,440 2029 2,000 Ride out the wave and remember that the market will always go through cycles where buyers will have the upper hand, then sellers, then buyers again. All you need to have is patience, and your property value will grow. To avoid overpaying altogether, connect with the real estate experts at GTA-Homes. Our top-performing team of professional agents are dedicated to long-term client success, whether you’re buying, selling, or investing in real estate. Countless homeowners have relied on our market expertise and educational

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